Moneyball (2011)

Trader's Film Library #65 · Risk, probability and gambling. The best film about a statistical edge, even though it's not about markets.

Original title: Moneyball · Type: film · Created by: Bennett Miller · Usefulness for traders: ★★★★★

What it's about

The true story of Oakland Athletics baseball general manager Billy Beane (Brad Pitt), who with an economist (Jonah Hill) builds a team based on statistics instead of scouts' intuition. Based on Michael Lewis's book.

What it has to do with markets

It's not a film about markets, but about what lies at the heart of trading: looking for an edge in data while others follow habit and intuition. It also shows how hard it is to stick to the process when results are temporarily bad.

Lessons for traders

• an edge is systematically exploiting what others misprice
• a process is judged over many trials, not one game (the law of small numbers, Atlas of biases #3)
• experts' intuition can be systematically wrong (the illusion of validity, Atlas of biases #20)
• stick to the process during a weaker stretch

What to watch out for

Not much baseball for the uninitiated, lots of universal lessons.

The book

I review the book this title is based on in the Trader's Library: 📚 Library #086 · Michael Lewis: Moneyball, Boomerang, The New New Thing, The Premonition.

Discussion

The discussion takes place in Hetman Capital Club (in Polish). Join the discussion in the Club →

Navigation

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The description outlines the plot without revealing the ending where possible (true stories have a known outcome). Educational content, not investment advice.