The 80% rule (Market Profile)

Trader's Glossary · Profile and auction

Definition. A heuristic from the Market Profile literature: when the market opens outside the previous day's value area, then returns to it and stays inside for two consecutive 30-minute periods, it often travels to the other side of the value area.

How it works

The logic is based on acceptance: returning to yesterday's value and holding there suggests the market considers those prices fair and may move through the whole area.

Example

An open below the VAL, a return into the value area and two TPO periods inside it. The next reference point becomes the VAH.

What to watch out for

The name suggests an 80% success rate, but that number hasn't been confirmed by independent research. It's a framework for thinking about acceptance, not a signal.

See also

Value area (VA, VAH, VAL), Market Profile (TPO), Acceptance and rejection.

More in Hetman Capital Club

You'll find the full explanation with graphics, examples and exercises in the 🖥️ Order flow atlas space, and its use in the live market in the 🔴 Live Room. Both are available to Club members (in Polish).

Educational content, not investment advice.