Definition. The belief that after a series of identical outcomes the opposite outcome becomes “more due”, even though successive events are independent or nearly independent.
How it works
The brain expects short sequences to look like long-run proportions. In reality, winning and losing streaks are a natural part of every method.
Example
After five losses in a row the trader assumes that “now it has to work” and abandons the plan.
What to watch out for
Losing streaks happen even with a good method. It's worth knowing their typical length from your own trading history.
You'll find the full explanation with graphics, examples and exercises in the 🧘 Trader's body and mind space, and its use in the live market in the 🔴 Live Room. Both are available to Club members (in Polish).
