US CPI: how to read the inflation data and how the Dow Jones reacts
CPI is the most important inflation reading in the US. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes it once a month at 8:30 AM New York time (14:30 in Warsaw). Within seconds of the release, Dow Jones futures can travel further than in the whole previous hour.
What gets published
- CPI m/m and y/y – the month-over-month and year-over-year change in prices (the headline number)
- Core CPI – excluding food and energy; this is what the market watches most, because it shows the persistent inflation the Fed responds to
- the market reacts to the difference between the actual number and the forecast, not to the number itself
How the Dow Jones reacted to recent CPI releases
Price change of the Dow Jones futures contract (MYM, CME) from the last trade before 8:30 AM ET, measured trade by trade (Sierra Chart):
| Release | 1 min | 15 min | 60 min | 15-min range | First impulse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | −226 | −345 | −314 | 394 | held |
| Sep 11, 2026 | −55 | +87 | +151 | 263 | reversed |
| Aug 12, 2026 | −46 | −10 | +14 | 177 | reversed |
| Jul 14, 2026 | +409 | +202 | +184 | 449 | faded |
| Jun 10, 2026 | +30 | +106 | +123 | 230 | held |
| May 12, 2026 | −19 | +23 | −25 | 101 | held |
| Apr 10, 2026 | −10 | −54 | −45 | 199 | held |
| Mar 11, 2026 | −19 | −110 | +38 | 212 | reversed |
On average the market covers 253 points in the 15 minutes after the data, and the direction of the first minute held only 4 times out of 8.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the CPI released?
At 8:30 AM New York time, which is 14:30 in Warsaw (13:30 in the weeks when Europe and the US change their clocks on different dates).
What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?
Core CPI excludes food and energy, so it shows persistent inflation better. It is what the market and the Fed watch most closely.
When are the next CPI releases?
November 10, 2026, December 10, 2026 and January 13, 2027, always at 8:30 AM New York time (14:30 in Warsaw).
Educational material, not investment advice. Trading futures involves a high risk of losing capital.