NFP: the US jobs report and how the Dow Jones reacts to it
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) is the monthly employment report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Together with CPI inflation and Fed decisions, it is one of the releases that move Dow Jones futures the most. The next report, for October, comes out on Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:30 AM New York time (14:30 Warsaw) (BLS schedule).
What time is the NFP released
- Normally 8:30 AM New York time (14:30 Warsaw), usually on the first Friday of the month.
- Exception for European readers: for a few weeks a year, when the US and Europe change clocks on different dates (late March and late October), the 8:30 AM release is at 13:30 Warsaw. This does not apply on November 6 – both sides have already changed clocks.
- Upcoming dates per the BLS: Nov 6, 2026 (October data), Dec 4, 2026 (November data), Jan 8, 2027 (December data).
- Watch for exceptions: the January 2026 report came out on February 11 (a Wednesday), and the June report on July 2 (a Thursday, ahead of the July 3 holiday). Always check the date in the calendar – Macro data today.
What is in the report
- Non-farm payrolls (NFP) – the number of new jobs, in thousands. The market compares it with the forecast (consensus), not with zero.
- Unemployment rate – often moves the market as much as the headline jobs number.
- Average hourly earnings (m/m) – a clue to wage inflation, important for the Fed.
- Revisions to previous months – they can change the message of the whole report.
Why it matters for the Dow Jones: labor market data shape expectations for Fed interest rates (FOMC meeting dates), and rates drive stock valuations and bond yields.
How the Dow Jones reacted to NFP in 2026 – numbers from real trades
Dow Jones futures (MYM, CME), tick data from Sierra Chart, reference point = the last trade before 8:30 AM ET. February (Feb 11) is skipped – no front-month tick data in the archive.
| Release date | Move after 1 min | after 15 min | after 60 min | 60-min range | Direction of the 1st minute |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | +80 | +105 | +83 | 327 pts | held |
| Sep 4, 2026 | −133 | −122 | −169 | 221 pts | held |
| Aug 7, 2026 | +58 | +88 | −29 | 170 pts | reversed |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +119 | +170 | +201 | 237 pts | held |
| Jun 5, 2026 | −27 | +40 | +45 | 214 pts | reversed |
| May 8, 2026 | +12 | +36 | +70 | 159 pts | held |
| Apr 3, 2026* | +65 | −24 | −43 | 313 pts | reversed |
| Mar 6, 2026 | −165 | −219 | −392 | 410 pts | held |
* Good Friday – the New York stock market was closed, futures were trading.
On average: 15-minute range 210 pts, 60-minute range 256 pts; average absolute move after 1 min 82 pts, after 60 min 129 pts. The direction of the first minute held in 5 of 8 reports; in 3 the market went the other way within the hour.
For comparison (same tick data): CPI – 15-minute range 253 pts, 60-minute range 290 pts (direction held 4 of 8); Fed decisions – 60-minute range 406 pts. In 2026 NFP moved the Dow slightly less than inflation, but the first hour is still about 40% of a typical full-day range (about 600 pts).
Largest move: Mar 6, 2026 – 392 pts down in an hour (410-pt range).
What the release minute looks like (order flow)
A step-by-step study of one session: The jobs report, minute by minute (Oct 2, 2026: a 242-pt range in the first minute, volume about 15× higher than before the data). The typical rhythm: before 8:30 AM the order book (DOM) thins out, in the first seconds there is a jump and heavy slippage, then a pullback and a second wave once the market digests the details (unemployment rate, wages, revisions). On CME futures you can see this in the footprint and delta, because every trade goes through one central order book.
What to watch out for on NFP day
- The first minute is not the direction of the day – in 3 of the 8 reports in 2026 the move reversed within the hour.
- Spreads and slippage in the first seconds can be many times larger than usual.
- The regular session opens at 9:30 AM ET (15:30 Warsaw) – a second dose of volatility on the same day (US market hours).
Frequently asked questions
What time is the NFP released?
Usually at 8:30 AM New York time (14:30 Warsaw). In the weeks when the US and Europe change clocks on different dates, it is 13:30 Warsaw. The November 6, 2026 report – 8:30 AM ET (14:30 Warsaw).
What is NFP in trading?
A monthly report on the change in US non-farm employment. Traders look at the difference between the actual number and the forecast, the unemployment rate and wages, because they shape expectations for Fed rates.
How strongly does the Dow Jones react to NFP?
Across the 8 reports in 2026, the average range of the first 15 minutes was 210 pts and of the first hour 256 pts (MYM futures on CME, real trades).
Does the first reaction to NFP set the direction?
Not always: the direction of the first minute held in 5 of 8 reports; in 3 the market reversed within the hour.
When is the next NFP report?
Per the BLS: Nov 6, 2026, Dec 4, 2026 and Jan 8, 2027, always at 8:30 AM New York time.
Educational material, not investment advice. Trading futures involves a high risk of losing capital.