Initial Balance breakout on the Dow Jones: what the market does after the first hour
Data: March 16, 2026 – October 26, 2026. Last updated: October 27, 2026.
Initial Balance (IB) is the range of the first hour of the regular trading hours (RTH) session: 9:30–10:30 AM New York (3:30–4:30 PM Warsaw). I describe the theory of day types in the article Initial Balance and day types. Here are the numbers for Dow Jones futures (MYM).
The first hour is most of the day
The typical (median) first-hour range was 298 points, and the full-day range 444 points. On a typical day the first hour therefore set 70% of the session's range.
How often the market moves beyond the IB
In 94.2% of sessions price moved beyond the first-hour range at least once. An “IB breakout” on its own is an everyday occurrence, not an event.
How far the breakout goes
What matters more is how far. The typical (median) extension beyond the IB is 0.47 of the IB length. The market reached at least half the IB length in 44.2% of sessions, and the full length (the textbook “doubling” of the range) in only 17.9%.
After the first breakout above, the session closed above the IB in 38.2% of cases, and in 19.1% the market then also broke below. After the first breakout below: a close under the IB in 39.2%, a break above as well in 19.0%.
Takeaway: the mere fact of moving beyond the IB says little. What counts is whether the market accepts the new prices, i.e. whether trading moves outside the range and stays there. You can see that in order flow, not on the chart alone.
How I calculate
Data: Dow Jones futures (MYM) on CME in Chicago, every trade from paid exchange data (Sierra Chart), converted into one-minute candles. Period: 156 sessions (March 16, 2026 – October 26, 2026). Regular trading hours (RTH) session = 9:30 AM–4:00 PM New York time (3:30–10:00 PM Warsaw). Each day I use the contract with the highest volume. I skip shortened sessions (US holidays).
That is 156 sessions, or about seven months. Enough to debunk myths, but too few to treat any single number as an edge. The sample grows every month, and the page is updated along with it.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Initial Balance?
The price range of the first hour of the regular trading hours (RTH) session. In the US market that is 9:30–10:30 AM New York, i.e. 3:30–4:30 PM Warsaw.
How often does the Dow Jones break out of the Initial Balance?
In 94.2% of sessions since March 16, 2026 price moved beyond the first-hour range at least once. It reached the full IB length in only 17.9% of sessions.
Is an IB breakout a good moment to enter?
This page does not give entry guidance. The numbers show that a breakout on its own happens almost every day, so without assessing price acceptance it means little.
Historical statistics, not investment advice. Past results do not guarantee similar results in the future. Trading futures involves a high risk of losing capital.