Superstition and random reinforcement

Atlas of Cognitive Biases #55 · Time, emotions and state. Your lucky mug doesn't trade

What it looks like in trading

lucky shirts, mugs, hours
repeating random actions from before a winning trade
believing in “my” pattern that worked once

An example from a session

A trader notices better results on days when they start with a coffee before the session. A pre-session ritual can help concentration (Trader fitness, Fundamentals #10), but it's a ritual, not the cause of the profits.

What the research says

B. F. Skinner (1948) gave pigeons food at fixed intervals, regardless of their behaviour. The birds began repeating the random movements they'd made just before feeding, as if those movements caused the reward.

Related biases

Frequently asked questions

What is superstition and random reinforcement?

When a reward arrives at random, it's easy to link it to some incidental behaviour and repeat that behaviour like a ritual.

How does superstition and random reinforcement show up in trading?

Typical signs: lucky shirts, mugs, hours; repeating random actions from before a winning trade; believing in “my” pattern that worked once.

Educational content, not psychological advice or an investment recommendation.