Outcome bias

Trader's Glossary · Psychology

Outcome bias

Definition. Judging the quality of a decision by its outcome rather than by whether it was well made given the information available.

How it works

In an environment with a lot of randomness, a good decision can produce a loss and a bad one a profit. Annie Duke, a former professional poker player, called this “resulting”.

Example

An off-plan decision happens to make money and is remembered as “good”. That reinforces bad habits.

What to watch out for

Judge decisions by how well they follow the plan and the quality of the process. Judge results over a series of decisions.

See also

Expectancy, Trading journal, Confirmation bias.

More in Hetman Capital Club

You'll find the full explanation with graphics, examples and exercises in the 🧘 Trader's body and mind space, and its use in the live market in the 🔴 Live Room. Both are available to Club members (in Polish).

Educational content, not investment advice.

Full article in the Atlas of biases: what this bias looks like in trading, an example and the research.